Cold Weather In Store; Wednesday Light Snow?

Image from HPC

 A cold front is expected to pass through the area Monday night. This event will allow clearing and, more importantly, cause large cooling behind the front. Arctic air will flood the region on Tuesday, and highs will struggle to reach the high teens. Below are sections of the 12z GFS and 12z NAM NWS MOS bulletins.

GFS MOS (MAV)
 KUES   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   12/30/2012  1200 UTC                      
 DT /DEC  30/DEC  31                /JAN   1                /JAN   2 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    23          24           8          15     6 
 TMP  22 24 23 25 28 28 27 24 22 21 18 15 14 11  9  8 13 14 10 10  9 
 DPT  14 17 18 20 23 24 23 21 20 17 13  9  7  5  4  2  2  1  1  0  2 
 CLD  OV OV BK OV BK OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV CL FW CL CL CL CL FW 

NAM MOS (MET)
 KUES   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   12/30/2012  1200 UTC                      
 DT /DEC  30/DEC  31                /JAN   1                /JAN   2 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    19          25           7          16     5 
 TMP  19 21 22 23 24 23 21 21 23 23 20 16 14 11  8  8 13 15 13  8  7 
 DPT  12 15 16 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 11  9  7  5  2  1  3  4  3  1  1 
 CLD  OV BK BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC CL CL CL CL BK FW 

 (Both of the MOS texts listed above are from the NWS/ NOAA)

There are a couple things to look at in these MOS texts. First is a very quick cool-down to occur early Tuesday morning. The GFS has temperatures around 14 degrees at 06z Tuesday, and around 9 degrees at 12z Tuesday.  The NAM is forecasting temps around 14 degrees as well at 06z Tuesday, and 8 degrees at 12z Tuesday. 

The second item that I want to highlight is the cloud cover-- Both models are showing clearing behind the front, so expect a very cold, clear day on Tuesday.  Several models are in agreement for this to occur.

Winds could add to the problem as well-- While extremely high wind gusts are not in the forecast, a steady breeze is possible, which will create wind chill problems (possibly below 0 during the night).

. . .

Light snow is possible on Wednesday as a weak low system will pass through the region. With little moisture, expect very small snow accumulations.

Summary

To summarize, expect a fast cool down this week-- starting late Monday night. Temperatures will struggle to reach the high teens, and winds might create wind chills below 0 during the nights. Bundle up! There is also a chance for light snow Wednesday-- very little accumulations expected.

-Chris