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Thanks for reading!
-Chris
Friday, January 25, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Active Weather Pattern Underway!
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| CoolWx.com |
The image above pretty much summarizes the weather period currently expected for the next couple weeks. The GFS is painting Madison, WI with a total of .866" of precipitation over 180 hours. This model chart is predicting that .325" of that precip will fall down as rain... .524" of that precipitation will reach the ground as snow (snow total amounts will range based on the snow: rain ratios)... and the remaining .016" could be freezing rain.
It would obviously be foolish to base an entire forecast on that chart, but it does help show the mixed precipitation that I'm currently expecting. I will be going through several of the systems poised to hit SE Wisconsin. Read on for the details!
. . . .
1)
A low pressure system is expected to slide to our south tomorrow into Friday. Light snow is likely. While totals may need to be bumped for the possibility for LES, a general 1-3" is likely.
Due to the warm lake water, the chilly airs aloft, and several other factors, there is a possibility for lake-effect snow along with this system. LES is hard to forecast, but locations near the lake may have higher totals compared to inland areas due to it.
2)
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| TropicalTidbits.com |
Uncertainty for this system is high. A low pressure system is expected to pass through the Midwest on Sunday. Precipitation is currently expected to begin as snow, but will eventually transition over to sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain as warm air is pushed into SE Wisconsin.
I will not be locking in any snow totals for this time period, especially considering the uncertainty in precipitation timing and precipitation transitions. Stay tuned.
3)
System #3 is likely to be a rain or rain/snow mix. Warmer air will likely be in place as this system passes by on Tuesday or so. Highs for Tuesday may exceed 40 degrees, but will have to watch several factors before pulling the trigger on a high temperature that high.
4)
The last storm that I will be mentioning is currently showing up on February 1-3. Models are picturing a low passing to our SE. At this point, models are illustrating a wide swath of accumulating snow in SE Wisconsin. Considering that this is a long range forecast, uncertainty is quite low. This however is a system to watch.
That's it! This blog update was meant to brief you on the several storms expected to strike our area. I will publish a more detailed update this weekend regarding the Sunday and early February systems.
Chris
Monday, January 21, 2013
Snow Returns to the Forecast!
Bad news: It's Monday.
And the good news?
The Patriots are out of the playoffs!
Now let's talk weather...
Arctic weather is dominating the region today-- Temperatures are hovering around 0 degrees, and wind chills are in the -20s. Expect these conditions to continue through tonight and into tomorrow before temperatures rise to a balmy 20 degrees or so to finish the week.
Once the high pressure system says its final goodbyes to the area, snow will once again enter the picture as a low system passes by. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement track of this system, but I am starting to get a general idea. Below is my current forecast track:
My current forecast track above is based off several of the current model runs that I trust along with a couple other factors. The factors include a clipper-type system during the same time frame, and the current arctic air surrounding the northern Midwest.
The ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro are not perfectly in line with their operational runs, so confidence is not sky high.
UPDATE: The 12z Euro is in, and it has shifted the system even further south. While I feel the ECMWF placed the storm too far south, it's hard to ignore Euro runs. The storm will soon be in the time frame of the NAM, so that will add another interesting aspect to the system.
Tomorrow's update will include an updated forecast track as more data continues to roll in, and that update will also likely include my first snow forecast for this storm.
Let's move on to another potential storm for SE Wisconsin:
Models are showing an active weather period for late January into February. One of the storms has been showing up consistently on GFS runs. Below is the 12z GFS run of that storm.
Is it foolish to start thinking about a snow storm 10 days away when the models are still having trouble handling a storm 3 days away? Probably. Is it still fun to consider? Absolutely.
Thanks for reading!
-Chris
And the good news?
The Patriots are out of the playoffs!
Now let's talk weather...
Arctic weather is dominating the region today-- Temperatures are hovering around 0 degrees, and wind chills are in the -20s. Expect these conditions to continue through tonight and into tomorrow before temperatures rise to a balmy 20 degrees or so to finish the week.
 |
| Image from The Weather Channel/ Weather.com |
Once the high pressure system says its final goodbyes to the area, snow will once again enter the picture as a low system passes by. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement track of this system, but I am starting to get a general idea. Below is my current forecast track:
 |
| 1/21/13 1: 30 PM CEWX Forecast Track Update |
My current forecast track above is based off several of the current model runs that I trust along with a couple other factors. The factors include a clipper-type system during the same time frame, and the current arctic air surrounding the northern Midwest.
 |
| GFS Precip Forecast for Madison, WI. Despite the low precip amounts, ratios will be high due to the arctic air. Image from CoolWx.com |
The ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro are not perfectly in line with their operational runs, so confidence is not sky high.
UPDATE: The 12z Euro is in, and it has shifted the system even further south. While I feel the ECMWF placed the storm too far south, it's hard to ignore Euro runs. The storm will soon be in the time frame of the NAM, so that will add another interesting aspect to the system.
Tomorrow's update will include an updated forecast track as more data continues to roll in, and that update will also likely include my first snow forecast for this storm.
Let's move on to another potential storm for SE Wisconsin:
Models are showing an active weather period for late January into February. One of the storms has been showing up consistently on GFS runs. Below is the 12z GFS run of that storm.
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| Image from NWS |
Is it foolish to start thinking about a snow storm 10 days away when the models are still having trouble handling a storm 3 days away? Probably. Is it still fun to consider? Absolutely.
Thanks for reading!
-Chris
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Arctic Weather Expected This Weekend
An arctic weather outbreak is poised to strike the region this weekend. A combination of arctic air and heavy winds will lead to brutally cold wind chills, possibly exceeding -20F degrees. Read on!
Let's start off with what we already know. The current temperature is mild, and highs today will likely pass 40 degrees. Clouds are sticking around the area this morning, but should begin to leave as warm southerly winds begin to enter southern Wisconsin.
Sounds pretty nice, right?
Yes, it does, but temperatures will begin to rapidly decrease as strong cold air advection begins to take place. A deep low pressure system will pass far to our north; the cold front, however, will start pushing in bitterly cold temperatures tonight. Pressure will also rise behind the cold front.
In addition to the cold temperatures, wind gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph. In response to this current forecast, the National Weather Service has issued a WIND ADVISORY for all of SE Wisconsin.
The coldest day of the week will likely be Monday or Tuesday. More cold air will advect into the area Sunday night or so, so highs will likely stay in single digits, and winds will be gusting around 30 mph.
Let's take a quick look at a section of GFS MOS guidance:
So here is my forecast for this weekend! As I always say, don't replace NWS forecasts with my personal forecasts. Thanks.
Today: Mild. Winds will start to pick up this afternoon. WIND ADVISORY in effect. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds gusting 30 mph or so.
Tonight: Getting colder! Lows around 10 degrees or so. Windy. Wind gusts around 40 mph or so. Wind chill low around -10 degrees.
Sunday: Cold. Highs in the lower teens. Winds gusting 20 - 30 mph. Wind chills -5 to -10 degrees.
Monday: Highs in the single digits. Winds around 20 - 30 mph. Wind chills around -5 to -10 degrees.
Monday Night - Tuesday Morning: Lows in the negative single digits! Winds gusting around 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills -15 to -25 degrees.
Thanks for reading! I will be publishing a new update soon regarding snow chances over the next couple weeks.
-Chris
Let's start off with what we already know. The current temperature is mild, and highs today will likely pass 40 degrees. Clouds are sticking around the area this morning, but should begin to leave as warm southerly winds begin to enter southern Wisconsin.
Sounds pretty nice, right?
Yes, it does, but temperatures will begin to rapidly decrease as strong cold air advection begins to take place. A deep low pressure system will pass far to our north; the cold front, however, will start pushing in bitterly cold temperatures tonight. Pressure will also rise behind the cold front.
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| HPC Forecast. Notice the low pressure system to our north, and the cold front trailing it. |
In addition to the cold temperatures, wind gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph. In response to this current forecast, the National Weather Service has issued a WIND ADVISORY for all of SE Wisconsin.
The coldest day of the week will likely be Monday or Tuesday. More cold air will advect into the area Sunday night or so, so highs will likely stay in single digits, and winds will be gusting around 30 mph.
Let's take a quick look at a section of GFS MOS guidance:
GFS MOS (MAV)
KUES GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/19/2013 0600 UTC
DT /JAN 19 /JAN 20 /JAN 21 /
HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06
X/N 42 7 12 -2 1
TMP 34 35 40 40 34 28 20 12 7 9 10 11 9 6 5 3 2 -2 -1 -2 -5
DPT 30 32 32 29 24 18 11 3 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -7 -9-15
CLD OV OV OV BK SC FW CL FW SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK OV BK SC
WDR 22 22 23 25 27 28 29 29 29 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 29 28 29 29
WSP 07 07 12 15 16 23 22 19 15 14 13 13 10 09 09 10 12 13 16 15 13
This MOS text is showing Saturday 18z temps at 40 degrees. Sunday 18z? 10 degrees. Monday 18z? -1 degrees. Keep in mind this is not counting wind chills. So here is my forecast for this weekend! As I always say, don't replace NWS forecasts with my personal forecasts. Thanks.
Today: Mild. Winds will start to pick up this afternoon. WIND ADVISORY in effect. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds gusting 30 mph or so.
Tonight: Getting colder! Lows around 10 degrees or so. Windy. Wind gusts around 40 mph or so. Wind chill low around -10 degrees.
Sunday: Cold. Highs in the lower teens. Winds gusting 20 - 30 mph. Wind chills -5 to -10 degrees.
Monday: Highs in the single digits. Winds around 20 - 30 mph. Wind chills around -5 to -10 degrees.
Monday Night - Tuesday Morning: Lows in the negative single digits! Winds gusting around 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills -15 to -25 degrees.
Thanks for reading! I will be publishing a new update soon regarding snow chances over the next couple weeks.
-Chris
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Snow Tonight; Another Arctic Cold Outbreak?
Winter: It sure hasn't felt like it over the past couple days.
Highs exceeded 50 degrees yesterday with rain. As expected, our snow pack has disappeared. The thermometer is finally dropping, however, as cold air floods the area.
Snow enters the forecast tonight as a low pressure system quickly passes to our south. Several models showing respectable amounts of lift briefly (in the Dendrite growth zone), so a general 1-3" is the current forecast. I don't see amounts exceeding 3" due to the quickness of the system and the lack of moisture.
In other weather news, the potential for an arctic weather outbreak is increasing. This is still 1-2 weeks away, so nothing is set in stone. Below is a 850 mb temperature GFS run 240 hours out to whet your weather appetite.
As this event nears, I will publish a new article that will deal the specifics.
Thanks for reading. I'll keep you updated!
-Chris
Highs exceeded 50 degrees yesterday with rain. As expected, our snow pack has disappeared. The thermometer is finally dropping, however, as cold air floods the area.
Snow enters the forecast tonight as a low pressure system quickly passes to our south. Several models showing respectable amounts of lift briefly (in the Dendrite growth zone), so a general 1-3" is the current forecast. I don't see amounts exceeding 3" due to the quickness of the system and the lack of moisture.
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| HPC QPF. Valid 06z Sunday to 12z Sunday. |
In other weather news, the potential for an arctic weather outbreak is increasing. This is still 1-2 weeks away, so nothing is set in stone. Below is a 850 mb temperature GFS run 240 hours out to whet your weather appetite.
As this event nears, I will publish a new article that will deal the specifics.
Thanks for reading. I'll keep you updated!
-Chris
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