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Thanks for reading!

-Chris

Active Weather Pattern Underway!

CoolWx.com

The image above pretty much summarizes the weather period currently expected for the next couple weeks. The GFS is painting Madison, WI with a total of .866" of precipitation over 180 hours. This model chart is predicting that .325" of that precip will fall down as rain... .524" of that precipitation will reach the ground as snow (snow total amounts will range based on the snow: rain ratios)... and the remaining .016" could be freezing rain.

It would obviously be foolish to base an entire forecast on that chart, but it does help show the mixed precipitation that I'm currently expecting. I will be going through several of the systems poised to hit SE Wisconsin. Read on for the details!

. . . .

1)

A low pressure system is expected to slide to our south tomorrow into Friday. Light snow is likely. While totals may need to be bumped for the possibility for LES, a general 1-3" is likely.

Due to the warm lake water, the chilly airs aloft, and several other factors, there is a possibility for lake-effect snow along with this system. LES is hard to forecast, but locations near the lake may have higher totals compared to inland areas due to it.

2)

TropicalTidbits.com

Uncertainty for this system is high. A low pressure system is expected to pass through the Midwest on Sunday. Precipitation is currently expected to begin as snow, but will eventually transition over to sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain as warm air is pushed into SE Wisconsin.

I will not be locking in any snow totals for this time period, especially considering the uncertainty in precipitation timing and precipitation transitions. Stay tuned.

3)

System #3 is likely to be a rain or rain/snow mix. Warmer air will likely be in place as this system passes by on Tuesday or so. Highs for Tuesday may exceed 40 degrees, but will have to watch several factors before pulling the trigger on a high temperature that high.

4)

The last storm that I will be mentioning is currently showing up on February 1-3.  Models are picturing a low passing to our SE. At this point, models are illustrating a wide swath of accumulating snow in SE Wisconsin. Considering that this is a long range forecast, uncertainty is quite low. This however is a system to watch.

That's it! This blog update was meant to brief you on the several storms expected to strike our area. I will publish a more detailed update this weekend regarding the Sunday and early February systems.

Chris

Snow Returns to the Forecast!

Bad news: It's Monday.

And the good news?

The Patriots are out of the playoffs!

Now let's talk weather...

Arctic weather is dominating the region today-- Temperatures are hovering around 0 degrees, and wind chills are in the -20s.  Expect these conditions to continue through tonight and into tomorrow before temperatures rise to a balmy 20 degrees or so to finish the week.

Image from The Weather Channel/ Weather.com

Once the high pressure system says its final goodbyes to the area, snow will once again enter the picture as a low system passes by. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement track of this system, but I am starting to get a general idea. Below is my current forecast track:

1/21/13 1: 30 PM CEWX Forecast Track Update

My current forecast track above is based off several of the current model runs that I trust along with a couple other factors. The factors include a clipper-type system during the same time frame, and the current arctic air surrounding the northern Midwest.

GFS Precip Forecast for Madison, WI. Despite the low precip amounts, ratios will be high due to the arctic air. Image from CoolWx.com

The ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro are not perfectly in line with their operational runs, so confidence is not sky high.

UPDATE: The 12z Euro is in, and it has shifted the system even further south. While I feel the ECMWF placed the storm too far south, it's hard to ignore Euro runs.  The storm will soon be in the time frame of the NAM, so that will add another interesting aspect to the system.

Tomorrow's update will include an updated forecast track as more data continues to roll in, and that update will also likely include my first snow forecast for this storm.

Let's move on to another potential storm for SE Wisconsin:

Models are showing an active weather period for late January into February.  One of the storms has been showing up consistently on GFS runs. Below is the 12z GFS run of that storm.

Image from NWS

Is it foolish to start thinking about a snow storm 10 days away when the models are still having trouble handling a storm 3 days away? Probably. Is it still fun to consider? Absolutely.

Thanks for reading!

-Chris